During the past 2008 US Presidential Election, the Democrats were the recipients of the largest Party Identification advantage over the course of the last 20+ years. According to PewResearch, the Democrats achieved a 7% identification advantage over the GOP. In previous election cycles, the Democrats had advantages, but failed to win the general election due to higher Republican turnout – a common identify of the GOP. However, this time the GOP couldn’t overcome the wide margin, as the Democrats captured the White House.
This may signal a new switch in party identification. Since the 1950’s, the Democrats have lost party identifiers, while the GOP has remained steady and the independents have increased. With more and more people becoming involved (most notably the grassroots efforts on the Democratic side), I feel it is likely that the Democrats will soon see a notable increase in party identifiers. And while this party identification doesn’t necessarily reflect voting behavior, the recent increased partisanship may reflect this and help the Democrats.
This isn’t good news for the GOP, since party identification is something learned at a young age and usually doesn’t change over time, only strengthens. This growing Democratic advantage may stay for decades (as the GOP has dominated the last few decades, winning 7/10 I believe). And since one of the only ways party identification is changed is due to an intense issue interest (currently Iraq, War on Terror, etc.), the Republicans may have already lost some to the left, only hurting their cause for the future even more.
In addition, the recent upswing in upswing in political activity and identification over the last 8 years is also helping to mold the next generation the Democratic Party. Since party identification is the single most stable political attitude and influences opinions and behaviors (rather than vice versa), it is safe to say that in the near future the Democrats may experience the same success of the GOP over the last few decades.
Some noteworthy tidbits to take from the exit polls include:
· The only voting identification that President Obama didn’t gain ground was that among active Democrats; however he didn’t lose any either. He picked up votes among Republicans, won the independent vote, and increased the Democratic share among virtually all other demographics
· From the 2004 election to the 2008 election the Democrats switched to their favor the 18-29 white vote, Post-Grad white vote, Eastern region white vote, and the Urban white vote
· The only region that President Obama won among white voters was in the east
In addition, for the first time history (probably?!), the youth vote actually may have made a difference. Obama drew about 2/3 of the youth vote and won it by a much greater margin than Senator Kerry in 2004. Had Kerry reached out and appealed to the youth vote the same way President Obama did, he probably would have won the White House.
Overall, the Democrats have made strides among basically all demographics over the last couple years. However, all this success can be wiped out due to the successes/failures of the single most important issue to voters – the economy.
